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MoronKiler

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$5.18M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$134.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $36.33M volume · 4,371 trades · since Dec 07, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$134.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
94%
35 closed
Wallet age · markets
321d
33 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $490.4k
2.3× usual
99% 133d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $14.5k98% 134d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $760.0k
3.6× usual
100% 140d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $245.8k100% 150d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $67.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $13.5k99% 185d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $996.7k
4.7× usual
100% 197d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $396.6k100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $414.6k100% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $63.0k100% 201d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $26.1k100% 201d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $69.8k0% 201d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $212.7k100% 208d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $259.6k99% 211d agoexcluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $65.4k100% 216d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $212.0k98% 218d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $263.8k100% 228d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $99.4k99% 319d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.4¢ $505.1k
2.4× usual
99% 321d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$490.4k
MED MoronKiler · 133d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$14.5k
LOW MoronKiler · 134d ago
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$760.0k
LOW MoronKiler · 140d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$245.8k
LOW MoronKiler · 150d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$67.9k
LOW MoronKiler · 177d ago
Trump out as President by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$13.5k
LOW MoronKiler · 185d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$996.7k
LOW MoronKiler · 197d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$396.6k
LOW MoronKiler · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$414.6k
LOW MoronKiler · 200d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$63.0k
LOW MoronKiler · 201d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$26.1k
LOW MoronKiler · 201d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$69.8k
LOW MoronKiler · 201d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$212.7k
LOW MoronKiler · 208d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$259.6k
LOW MoronKiler · 211d ago
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$65.4k
LOW MoronKiler · 216d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$212.0k
LOW MoronKiler · 218d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$263.8k
LOW MoronKiler · 228d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$99.4k
LOW MoronKiler · 319d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$505.1k
MED MoronKiler · 321d ago

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