← Wallets
+$464No · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $17.9k+$1,350Yes · avg 89¢ → 97¢ · $17.3k+$334No · avg 90.8¢ → 94.5¢ · $8,505 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$446No · avg 86¢ → 94¢ · $5,170+$122No · avg 92¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,722+$3,257Yes · avg 22¢ → 76¢ · $4,560+$501Yes · avg 55¢ → 66¢ · $2,993 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$42Yes · avg 95.5¢ → 96.9¢ · $2,907
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -33.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-33.7 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$200.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$135.2k
Last 30 days −$159 · $18.61M volume · 54,385 trades · since Jun 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$351.1k
Open P&L · 87 positions
+$765
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
848d
1975 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -33.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump out as President by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $37.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $20.5k | missed |
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