← Wallets
+$684Yes · avg 50¢ → 96¢ · $1,426+$165Yes · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $665 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$657Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 44¢ · $663+$619Yes · avg 3.6¢ → 66¢ · $655+$539Yes · avg 5.5¢ → 60¢ · $593+$208Yes · avg 50¢ → 91.5¢ · $458−$155Yes · avg 50¢ → 34¢ · $345+$302Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 21¢ · $308
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did -1.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.5 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
5.1
Flagged volume
$373.0k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$35k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? at 68¢) and the edge is -7.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=1
80–100¢
80% vs 88% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$249.8k
Last 30 days +$2,398 · $113.09M volume · 815,426 trades · since Dec 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.78M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$2.06M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
687d
6367 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -20.5 pts |
| Economy | 3 | 2 | 1.8 | +6.4 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +32.0 pts |
History
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