Bet1nthedark

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +20.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$1,641No · avg 84¢ → 80¢ · $30.7k Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$137No · avg 95.7¢ → 95¢ · $20.4k 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$411No · avg 90.4¢ → 92.5¢ · $18.5k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$351Yes · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $16.1k Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$460Yes · avg 57¢ → 62¢ · $5,494 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$469Yes · avg 86¢ → 94.5¢ · $5,210 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$121No · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $5,121 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$83No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,209

Price-adjusted edge

+20.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$78.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$27.9k

Last 30 days −$7,265 · $2.26M volume · 2,664 trades · since Jul 15, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$25.2k

Open P&L · 22 positions

−$61.3k

Closed-position win rate

81%

265 closed

Wallet age · markets

832d

269 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	1	0.8	+20.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$13.1k	80%	34d ago	called
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$25.8k	1%	144d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$10.9k	100%	266d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 95¢	$28.7k	5%	323d ago	excluded

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called

BUY Yes @ 80¢$13.1k

LOW Bet1nthedark · 34d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$25.8k

LOW Bet1nthedark · 144d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$10.9k

LOW Bet1nthedark · 266d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 95¢$28.7k

MED Bet1nthedark · 323d ago

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