balabalababalabala

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$215No · avg 68¢ → 72¢ · $3,625 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$25No · avg 64¢ → 64¢ · $1,905 Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?+$65No · avg 89¢ → 92¢ · $1,840 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$10Yes · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $1,730 Will Frank Scarpitti win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?+$99Yes · avg 91.6¢ → 97.4¢ · $1,688 Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?+$90Yes · avg 69¢ → 74¢ · $1,480 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$70Yes · avg 63¢ → 66¢ · $1,330 · 2 proven with, 0 against Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?−$1,361No · avg 45¢ → 21¢ · $1,191

Price-adjusted edge

-6.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.1

Flagged volume

$24.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$59.2k

Last 30 days −$571 · $12.48M volume · 23,275 trades · since Apr 05, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$146.5k

Open P&L · 500 positions

−$89.5k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

203d

2409 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.1	-6.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 94¢	$12.9k	6%	168d ago	missed
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 96.3¢	$11.6k	4%	176d ago	excluded

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?missed

SELL No @ 94¢$12.9k

LOW balabalababalabala · 168d ago

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 96.3¢$11.6k

LOW balabalababalabala · 176d ago

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