Folletin

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +20.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$147No · avg 92¢ → 92.5¢ · $25.4k Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?+$2,368No · avg 77¢ → 89¢ · $17.5k Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$4,818Yes · avg 64¢ → 94.5¢ · $14.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$113No · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $14.1k Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?+$5,596Yes · avg 52¢ → 96.2¢ · $12.3k Iran leadership change by December 31?−$52No · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $10.1k Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?+$2,062No · avg 74¢ → 93.5¢ · $9,944 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?−$1,548No · avg 76¢ → 58¢ · $4,891

Price-adjusted edge

+20.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$24.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$87.4k

Last 30 days +$9,323 · $2.56M volume · 5,814 trades · since Jul 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$216.3k

Open P&L · 94 positions

+$474

Closed-position win rate

98%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

822d

740 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.8	+20.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$10.2k	80%	120d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$13.8k	1%	178d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 80¢$10.2k

LOW Folletin · 120d ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.3¢$13.8k

LOW Folletin · 178d ago

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