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What this means. A wallet put $11.4k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 20% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.4k
SELL Yes @ 80¢ · 14,302 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet operationcastle took Yes (sell) for $11.4k at an average 80¢. At that price the market implied a 20% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 80¢
- Implied odds
- 20.1%
- Size
- $11.4k
- Placed
- Sep 03, 15:00 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 04, 07:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- operationcastle
- Tx
- 0xff5a667d…
This wallet's graded record
2/2+23.5 pts
expected 1.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $163.4k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $63.6k | excluded |