GTA VI released by October 31?

elmcap2 sold No at 99.9¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 0% chance. 13,453 shares, Oct 28, 08:18 EDT.

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Plain exchange link. No referral code.

What this means. A wallet put $13.4k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →

[01] Bet

What happened

Wallet elmcap2 sold No for $13.4k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied 0% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.

This wallet is 1 of 1 on graded bets, +3.1 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.

[02] Flag

Why it was flagged

Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology

Size $13.4k+0

Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1

Near-certain price-2

Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other

[04] Price

Price since the bet

Price since this bet

Since entry -0.1 pts

No price · entry 99.9¢ · now 100¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way

Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.