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What this means. A wallet put $15.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 28% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.4k
BUY Yes @ 28¢ · 55,509 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet cynical.reason took Yes (buy) for $15.4k at an average 28¢. At that price the market implied a 28% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 28¢ means
28%chance the market gave
+260American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 28¢
- Implied odds
- 27.8%
- Size
- $15.4k
- Placed
- Feb 19, 00:56 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- cynical.reason
- Tx
- 0xd82d9078…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-37.7 pts
expected 1.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $222.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |