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What this means. A wallet put $17.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 77% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$17.6k
BUY No @ 77¢ · 22,889 shares
Size ≥ $10kProven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $17.6k at an average 77¢. At that price the market implied a 77% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $17.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 77¢ means
77%chance the market gave
−335American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 77¢
- Implied odds
- 77.0%
- Size
- $17.6k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 12:37 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 07, 21:24 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xd6afbcb7…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -77 ptsNo price · entry 77¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $143.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $68.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |