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What this means. A wallet put $18.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.2k
SELL No @ 98.2¢ · 18,556 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took No (sell) for $18.2k at an average 98.2¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.2k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 98.2¢
- Implied odds
- 1.8%
- Size
- $18.2k
- Placed
- Feb 26, 05:35 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0xcd7f7423…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $291.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.0k | excluded |