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What this means. A wallet put $255.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$255.3k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 255,567 shares
Size ≥ $250kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)5× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took Yes (sell) for $255.3k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $255.3k+3
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $255.3k
- Placed
- Apr 08, 18:03 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 06, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0xbb4bee28…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $53.6k | excluded |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $399.6k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $45.5k | excluded |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $36.5k | excluded |