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What this means. A wallet put $24.1k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 38% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$24.1k
BUY Yes @ 38¢ · 63,775 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet halamadridynadamas took Yes (buy) for $24.1k at an average 38¢. At that price the market implied a 38% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $24.1k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 38¢ means
38%chance the market gave
+165American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 38¢
- Implied odds
- 37.8%
- As American odds
- +165 no vig
- Size
- $24.1k
- Placed
- Jul 14, 13:39 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 14, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- halamadridynadamas
- Tx
- 0xae0bc3db…
This wallet's graded record
2/4-7.9 pts
expected 2.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -38 ptsYes price · entry 38¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $46.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $53.8k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $15.0k | excluded |