Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

GoriIIa bought No at 94.7¢. The price gave that side a 95% chance. 11,855 shares, Oct 30, 13:23 EDT.

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What this means. A wallet put $11.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 95% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →

[01] Bet

What happened

Wallet GoriIIa bought No for $11.2k at an average 94.7¢. At that price the market implied 95% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.

This wallet is 1 of 1 on graded bets, +5.0 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.

[02] Flag

Why it was flagged

Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology

Size $11.2k+0

Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Politics

What 95¢ means

95%chance the market gave

−1777American odds

$1.00paid per share if No wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

[04] Price

Price since the bet

Price since this bet

Since entry +1.0 pts

No price · entry 94.7¢ · now 95.7¢

Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Related news

Same names, last 7 days

A Mississippi Democrat is unexpectedly threatening Republicans’ grip on the US SenateThe Guardian · 1d ago Watch: BBC asks Democrat El-Sayed about tight Michigan Senate raceBBC News · 4d ago

Public RSS headlines that use a team, person, or institution also named in this market. We did not write them, and they are not a read on the odds. Sources and matching rules