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What this means. A wallet put $43.8k on No, at a price that gave it a 48% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+11.3 pts over 67 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$43.8k
BUY No @ 48¢ · 91,348 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.1× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet omnibus-076daa took No (buy) for $43.8k at an average 48¢. At that price the market implied a 48% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $43.8k+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 48¢ means
48%chance the market gave
+108American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 48¢
- Implied odds
- 48.0%
- As American odds
- +108 no vig
- Size
- $43.8k
- Placed
- Jun 24, 14:59 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 25, 19:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- omnibus-076daa
- Tx
- 0x9c1a66bb…
This wallet's graded record
39/67+11.3 pts
expected 31.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +52 ptsNo price · entry 48¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 94.6¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL Yes @ 24¢ | $56.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $67.8k 3.8× usual |
excluded |