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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +13.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$1.56M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$110.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $41.20M volume · 41,604 trades · since Jun 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.45M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
131d
992 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +13.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 72¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 64¢ | $31.6k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 71¢ | $82.9k 4.0× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $43.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 53¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $12.5k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 74¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $31.5k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 90¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $100.2k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 88¢ | $48.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 39¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 91.6¢ | $11.4k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢ | $43.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 76¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
 Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 92.8¢ | $48.3k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Egypt @ 54¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 75¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 92.8¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 81¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $39.4k | excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 54¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $53.4k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 32¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $39.2k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $42.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $26.7k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 95.7¢ | $42.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.3k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
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