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What this means. A wallet put $18.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 64% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.4k
BUY No @ 64¢ · 28,823 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet StudentMoney took No (buy) for $18.4k at an average 64¢. At that price the market implied a 64% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.4k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 64¢ means
64%chance the market gave
−177American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 64¢
- Implied odds
- 63.8%
- Size
- $18.4k
- Placed
- Mar 23, 08:52 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 07, 21:24 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- StudentMoney
- Tx
- 0x93fd2605…
This wallet's graded record
2/4-14.2 pts
expected 2.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $143.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $68.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |