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What this means. A wallet put $13.2k on not Islam Makhachev, at a price that gave it a 27% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a losing record: -18.2 pts vs the price over 26 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.2k
SELL Islam Makhachev @ 73¢ · 18,024 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet suntori took Islam Makhachev (sell) for $13.2k at an average 73¢. At that price the market implied a 27% chance for that side. The market resolved Islam Makhachev. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.2k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 73¢
- Implied odds
- 27.0%
- As American odds
- +270 no vig
- Size
- $13.2k
- Placed
- Aug 15, 17:20 EDT
- Market close
- Aug 15, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- Islam Makhachev
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- suntori
- Tx
- 0x8ce7abb9…
This wallet's graded record
10/26-18.2 pts
expected 14.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -27 ptsIslam Makhachev price · entry 73¢ · resolved Islam Makhachev · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $172.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi's trade tape has no account id. A public nickname shows on the Kalshi flag when the social feed names that side.
| YES Islam Makhachev | $37.9k | 74¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $15.7k | 74¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $15.1k | 74¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $11.1k | 74¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Fight goes the distance | $42.1k | 52¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Ian Machado Garry by Decision | $22.4k | 16¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $10.3k | 74¢ | 70d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $19.9k | 74¢ | 70d ago |