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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $47.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+1.5 pts over 26 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$47.9k
SELL No @ 97.5¢ · 49,199 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet scottilicious took No (sell) for $47.9k at an average 97.5¢. At that price the market implied a 3% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $47.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 97.5¢
- Implied odds
- 2.5%
- Size
- $47.9k
- Placed
- Apr 05, 13:31 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- scottilicious
- Tx
- 0x8873a5df…
This wallet's graded record
23/26+1.5 pts
expected 22.6 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade +97 ptsNo price · entry 97.5¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |