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What this means. A wallet put $13.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
$13.0k
SELL Yes @ 1.3¢ · 1,000,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Sports

What happened

Wallet 0x4488…e319 took Yes (sell) for $13.0k at an average 1.3¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $13.0k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
Entry price
1.3¢
Implied odds
98.7%
As American odds
−7592 no vig
Size
$13.0k
Placed
Jul 05, 13:13 EDT
Market close
Jul 10, 20:12 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
0x4488…e319
Tx
0x76db4b41…
This wallet's graded record
11/12+12.9 pts
expected 9.5 from price

Entry to resolution

Grade +1 pts
Yes price · entry 1.3¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 1.3¢ · $13.0k WHALE $13.0K @ 1.3¢ CALLED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $11.9k0% lck111105d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k100% degenofweb3105d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $12.9k99% Desy-1725192185234105d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 2.1¢ $10.7k98% 0xb886…81b3106d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $10.9k98% SplendidAmadeus106d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 2.2¢ $23.8k2% suntori LOSING106d agoexcluded