0xb886…81b3

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$4,054Yes · avg 22¢ → 19¢ · $22.9k Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?−$32.3kYes · avg 7.8¢ → 2.2¢ · $13.1k Nothing Ever Happens: 2026−$4,681No · avg 32¢ → 20¢ · $8,151 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?−$5,499Yes · avg 40¢ → 22¢ · $6,466 US strike on Cuba by December 31?−$18.4kYes · avg 33¢ → 8.5¢ · $6,263 Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?−$3,672Yes · avg 17¢ → 10¢ · $5,699 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?−$6,959Yes · avg 18¢ → 5.5¢ · $3,176 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?−$2,963Yes · avg 5.3¢ → 2.4¢ · $2,336

Price-adjusted edge

+3.7 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$33.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$69.3k

Last 30 days −$15.4k · $145.84M volume · 268,461 trades · since Jan 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$309.3k

Open P&L · 137 positions

−$107.2k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

293d

1541 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	1.0	+3.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 2.1¢	$10.7k	98%	106d ago	excluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 2.3¢	$11.5k	2%	109d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 3.7¢	$11.4k	96%	116d ago	called

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL Yes @ 2.1¢$10.7k

LOW 0xb886…81b3 · 106d ago

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY Yes @ 2.3¢$11.5k

LOW 0xb886…81b3 · 109d ago

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 3.7¢$11.4k

LOW 0xb886…81b3 · 116d ago

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