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Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $678.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 18% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?excluded$678.5k
SELL Yes @ 82¢ · 829,011 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $250kUnderdog side3 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)4.9× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet Winnerdinnerchickenjr took Yes (sell) for $678.5k at an average 82¢. At that price the market implied a 18% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $678.5k+3
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 82¢
- Implied odds
- 18.2%
- As American odds
- +451 no vig
- Size
- $678.5k
- Placed
- Jun 23, 20:58 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 23, 19:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Winnerdinnerchickenjr
- Tx
- 0x6959f0d9…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-66.3 pts
expected 0.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -18 ptsYes price · entry 82¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $37.7k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | MED SELL Yes @ 95.9¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |