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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -66.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-66.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$6.34M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$212.7k
Last 30 days −$22.6k · $22.78M volume · 505 trades · since Jun 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.48M
Open P&L · 58 positions
−$3.68M
Closed-position win rate
78%
92 closed
Wallet age · markets
135d
149 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -66.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 54¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | MED BUY Chicago Cubs @ 53¢ | $106.3k | excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 67¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $37.1k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $49.0k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $121.6k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 72¢ | $87.3k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 43¢ | $63.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $64.4k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $605.9k 4.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 82¢ | $678.5k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $626.5k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $140.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $164.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $234.1k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $157.0k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $63.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $323.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $65.0k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $300.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros | LOW SELL Houston Astros @ 99.9¢ | $162.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $192.6k | excluded |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros | LOW BUY Houston Astros @ 94¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $160.0k | excluded |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros | HIGH BUY Detroit Tigers @ 40¢ | $300.0k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $239.2k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $200.0k | excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $417.3k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $137.0k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $80.0k | excluded |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | MED SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $268.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 13¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
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