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What this means. A wallet put $10.0k on Duke, at a price that gave it a 64% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
$10.0k
BUY Duke @ 64¢ · 15,637 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Sports

What happened

Wallet Nooserac took Duke (buy) for $10.0k at an average 64¢. At that price the market implied a 64% chance for that side. The market resolved Duke. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $10.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 64¢ means
64%chance the market gave
−178American odds
$1.00paid per share if Duke wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
64¢
Implied odds
64.0%
As American odds
−178 no vig
Size
$10.0k
Placed
Oct 23, 19:17 EDT
Market close
Oct 23, 19:00 EDT
Result
Duke
Counts toward score
no
Wallet
Nooserac
Tx
0x51d64038…
This wallet's graded record
5/8-7.6 pts
expected 5.6 from price
Share this receipt

Entry to resolution

Grade +36 pts
Duke price · entry 64¢ · resolved Duke
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 64¢ · $10.0k WHALE $10.0K @ 64¢ CALLED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Duke vs. VirginiaMED BUY Duke @ 72¢ $55.9k
2.0× usual
72% KaneAnalytics23h agoexcluded
Duke vs. VirginiaLOW BUY Virginia @ 57¢ $22.9k57% mooseborzoii23h agoexcluded
Duke vs. VirginiaLOW BUY Virginia @ 66¢ $20.0k66% TAIWANNUMBERONE1d agoexcluded
Duke vs. VirginiaMED BUY Duke @ 28¢ $25.6k28% mooseborzoii1d agoexcluded
Duke vs. VirginiaMED BUY Virginia @ 72¢ $34.9k72% 778908 NEW1d agoexcluded
Duke vs. VirginiaLOW BUY Virginia @ 56¢ $25.0k56% Nooserac1d agoexcluded
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
BUY Duke @ 72¢$55.9k
MED KaneAnalytics · 23h ago
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
BUY Virginia @ 57¢$22.9k
LOW mooseborzoii · 23h ago
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
BUY Virginia @ 66¢$20.0k
LOW TAIWANNUMBERONE · 1d ago
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
BUY Duke @ 28¢$25.6k
MED mooseborzoii · 1d ago
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
BUY Virginia @ 72¢$34.9k
MED New wallet 778908 · 1d ago
Duke vs. Virginiaexcluded
BUY Virginia @ 56¢$25.0k
LOW Nooserac · 1d ago

Whale money on this game, both venues

$10k+ trades we flagged on Duke vs. Virginia, added up per side across Polymarket and Kalshi. These are trade sizes, not open positions, and Kalshi doesn't show who traded, so one person could be on both venues.

Virginia 18 trades$525.5k
Polymarket $102.7kKalshi $422.7k
Duke 11 trades$234.9k
Polymarket $91.5k (this flag)Kalshi $143.4k

Bars are scaled to the bigger side. Activity, not a recommendation: big money on a side has not beaten the price on our scoreboard.

Same game on Kalshi

Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.

NO Virginia$10.2k38¢1d ago
YES Virginia$27.2k67¢1d ago
NO Duke$12.3k73¢1d ago
YES Virginia$11.6k70¢1d ago
NO Duke$11.5k70¢1d ago
YES Virginia$57.8k64¢1d ago
NO Duke$11.6k69¢1d ago
YES Virginia$19.6k67¢1d ago