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What this means. A wallet put $22.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 73% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$22.4k
BUY No @ 73¢ · 30,626 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took No (buy) for $22.4k at an average 73¢. At that price the market implied a 73% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $22.4k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 73¢ means
73%chance the market gave
−270American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 73¢
- Implied odds
- 73.0%
- Size
- $22.4k
- Placed
- Mar 22, 08:25 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 07, 21:24 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0x4d535dcc…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $143.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $68.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |