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What this means. A wallet put $234.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 6% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$234.0k
SELL Yes @ 93.6¢ · 250,000 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side3 fills in 1h9.4× this wallet's usual betPolitics
What happened
Wallet 0x4488…e319 took Yes (sell) for $234.0k at an average 93.6¢. At that price the market implied a 6% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $234.0k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 93.6¢
- Implied odds
- 6.4%
- Size
- $234.0k
- Placed
- Nov 03, 13:18 EST
- Market close
- Nov 04, 07:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x4488…e319
- Tx
- 0x3e89eb34…
This wallet's graded record
11/12+12.9 pts
expected 9.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -6 ptsYes price · entry 93.6¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $163.4k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $63.6k | excluded |