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What this means. A wallet put $191.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 42% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -19.3 pts vs the price over 28 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$191.3k
SELL Yes @ 58¢ · 329,905 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $100k4 fills in 1h3.1× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet surfandturf took Yes (sell) for $191.3k at an average 58¢. At that price the market implied a 42% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $191.3k+2
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 58¢
- Implied odds
- 42.0%
- As American odds
- +138 no vig
- Size
- $191.3k
- Placed
- Jun 28, 11:18 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 28, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- surfandturf
- Tx
- 0x3e075aaa…
This wallet's graded record
10/28-19.3 pts
expected 15.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -42 ptsYes price · entry 58¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $131.1k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ | $71.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |