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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +47.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+47.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$142.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$80.0k
Last 30 days +$78.8k · $503.0k volume · 109 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$103.3k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$25.0k
Closed-position win rate
88%
8 closed
Wallet age · markets
1d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 1.6 | +47.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs. Clippers | HIGH SELL Clippers @ 50¢ | $35.0k | Called |
| Lakers vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 49¢ | $33.1k | Missed |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5) | MED BUY Warriors @ 53¢ | $10.2k | Called |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Warriors @ 40¢ | $19.0k | Called |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans | MED BUY Nuggets @ 64¢ | $44.8k | Called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf4f381…