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+$130Yes · avg 40¢ → 44¢ · $1,630−$265Opp. · avg 6.5¢ → 1.5¢ · $80
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.6 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$10.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,727
Last 30 days −$643 · $120.9k volume · 96 trades · since Sep 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,159
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$151
Closed-position win rate
41%
22 closed
Wallet age · markets
47d
24 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢ | $10.5k | Called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf08d03…