maxgreen

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -13.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-13.8 pts

Called / graded

1/4

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$166.2k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$93.6k

Last 30 days −$15.2k · $7.83M volume · 7,516 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.76M

Open P&L · 124 positions

−$1.65M

Closed-position win rate

94%

130 closed

Wallet age · markets

206d

243 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	4	1	1.6	-13.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?	LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢	$14.8k	51%	62d ago	missed
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$30.1k	47%	114d ago	excluded
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$36.5k 2.0× usual	48%	132d ago	excluded
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 18¢	$15.7k	18%	139d ago	missed
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres	LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 47¢	$20.2k	47%	152d ago	missed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	LOW BUY No @ 39¢	$15.2k	39%	158d ago	called
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$22.1k	54%	161d ago	excluded
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	LOW BUY Sean Strickland @ 57¢	$11.4k	57%	167d ago	excluded

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?missed

BUY Yes @ 51¢$14.8k

LOW maxgreen · 62d ago

Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scoreexcluded

BUY No @ 47¢$30.1k

LOW maxgreen · 114d ago

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?excluded

BUY Yes @ 48¢$36.5k

LOW maxgreen · 132d ago

Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevmissed

BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 18¢$15.7k

LOW maxgreen · 139d ago

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padresmissed

BUY San Diego Padres @ 47¢$20.2k

LOW maxgreen · 152d ago

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?called

BUY No @ 39¢$15.2k

LOW maxgreen · 158d ago

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?excluded

BUY Yes @ 54¢$22.1k

LOW maxgreen · 161d ago

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)excluded

BUY Sean Strickland @ 57¢$11.4k

LOW maxgreen · 167d ago

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