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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -15.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.3 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$34.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,367
Last 30 days +$0 · $781.5k volume · 124 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$4,500
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$3,470
Closed-position win rate
50%
16 closed
Wallet age · markets
363d
12 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -41.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +10.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $13.8k | called |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $20.5k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xeefbcc…