← Wallets
+$4,185Yes · avg 89¢ → 96.5¢ · $54.2k+$9,583Yes · avg 74¢ → 94.5¢ · $44.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$48No · avg 96.6¢ → 97.1¢ · $10.0k+$229No · avg 87¢ → 90.5¢ · $5,729+$277No · avg 93¢ → 98.2¢ · $5,277+$223No · avg 92.5¢ → 96.6¢ · $5,223+$215No · avg 92¢ → 96¢ · $5,215+$197No · avg 89¢ → 92.5¢ · $5,197
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +20.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+20.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$165.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$37.1k
Last 30 days +$6,853 · $7.44M volume · 3,219 trades · since Jan 30, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$216.6k
Open P&L · 43 positions
+$13.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
267d
1644 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +20.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.4¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $74.0k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
 Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 16? | LOW BUY Down @ 98.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
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