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+$0No · avg 98.1¢ → 98.4¢ · $22
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$60.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$106
Last 30 days +$1 · $270.0k volume · 334 trades · since Feb 26, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$106
Open P&L · 1 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
89%
110 closed
Wallet age · markets
241d
101 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.3k | called |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
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