aghy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +55.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?+$14.0kYes · avg 71¢ → 96.9¢ · $52.3k Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?+$20.6kYes · avg 34¢ → 84¢ · $35.0k Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?+$2,738Yes · avg 16¢ → 67¢ · $3,607 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?−$1,172Yes · avg 8¢ → 4.5¢ · $1,506 No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$584Yes · avg 59¢ → 97.1¢ · $1,488 Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?−$1,889Yes · avg 41¢ → 16¢ · $1,211 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?−$11.1kYes · avg 15¢ → 1.5¢ · $1,193 Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?−$119Yes · avg 17¢ → 14¢ · $791

Price-adjusted edge

+55.9 pts

Called / graded

4/4

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$59.7k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$191.7k

Last 30 days +$29.4k · $1.86M volume · 1,267 trades · since Jul 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$169.8k

Open P&L · 9 positions

+$22.9k

Closed-position win rate

30%

10 closed

Wallet age · markets

97d

19 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	4	4	1.8	+55.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$15.2k	35%	75d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$19.0k	35%	75d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$14.7k	53%	85d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$10.8k	53%	86d ago	called

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 35¢$15.2k

LOW aghy · 75d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 35¢$19.0k

LOW aghy · 75d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 53¢$14.7k

LOW aghy · 85d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 53¢$10.8k

LOW aghy · 86d ago

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