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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +2.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.0 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$401.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$110.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.70M volume · 347 trades · since Jul 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$27.5k
Open P&L · 25 positions
−$159.3k
Closed-position win rate
62%
34 closed
Wallet age · markets
474d
63 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +2.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 12¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $21.0k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 29¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $15.1k | missed |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | LOW BUY Portugal @ 68¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $95.1k 6.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $98.7k 6.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $16.6k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 91¢ | $24.1k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $15.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb0a275…