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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.4 wins, so it did -22.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-22.7 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
5.4
Flagged volume
$191.9k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$20k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? at 91¢) and the edge is -29.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
0% vs 70% · n=1
80–100¢
80% vs 93% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$67.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.15M volume · 12,178 trades · since May 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$301.7k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$32.8k
Closed-position win rate
89%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
512d
550 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -92.0 pts |
| Politics | 5 | 4 | 4.4 | -8.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $14.3k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $10.5k | missed |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 95.1¢ | $29.6k 2.0× usual |
called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $30.3k 2.1× usual |
called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $20.2k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ | $14.2k | called |
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