Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$172
Return on staked
-28.7%
Bets
4/6 won
Edge vs price
-22.7 pts ±12.1
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 25, 15:38 EDTApr 01, 13:16 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | 92¢ | missed | 205d ago |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | 70¢ | missed | 261d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 95¢ | called | 357d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 94¢ | called | 358d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 91¢ | called | 359d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 95¢ | called | 363d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.