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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +24.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+24.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$40.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$174.7k
Last 30 days +$28.7k · $1.99M volume · 957 trades · since May 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$158.2k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$16.3k
Closed-position win rate
46%
215 closed
Wallet age · markets
161d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +24.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Heat @ 79¢ | $11.5k | Excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 61¢ | $13.0k | Excluded |
| Wizards vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 76¢ | $16.0k | Called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xaaaa30…