kinderSman

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +25.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$1,270Yes · avg 88¢ → 94.5¢ · $18.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?+$1,212No · avg 84¢ → 95.5¢ · $10.5k 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$150No · avg 91¢ → 92.5¢ · $9,250 Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?+$15No · avg 95.7¢ → 96.5¢ · $1,929 China x Japan military clash before 2027?+$96No · avg 91¢ → 95.8¢ · $1,916 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$219No · avg 95.6¢ → 84¢ · $1,579 · 1 proven with, 0 against US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?−$3No · avg 98.9¢ → 98.6¢ · $984 Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?+$18No · avg 96¢ → 97.9¢ · $978

Price-adjusted edge

+25.1 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$69.7k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±43.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$151.8k

Last 30 days −$606 · $8.46M volume · 19,226 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$371.3k

Open P&L · 26 positions

−$831

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

363d

756 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	1	1	0.7	+25.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$19.8k	75%	148d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	100%	177d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$15.0k	100%	178d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$15.0k	100%	238d ago	excluded

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 75¢$19.8k

LOW kinderSman · 148d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW kinderSman · 177d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$15.0k

LOW kinderSman · 178d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$15.0k

LOW kinderSman · 238d ago

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