aleksandmoney

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did +27.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?+$2,670No · avg 81¢ → 96.9¢ · $16.8k Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?+$2,000No · avg 85¢ → 98.4¢ · $14.8k Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?+$4,069No · avg 67¢ → 95.5¢ · $13.8k Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?+$237No · avg 93¢ → 96.9¢ · $5,989 Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?+$133Yes · avg 23¢ → 24¢ · $3,475 Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?+$850No · avg 50¢ → 92.5¢ · $1,850 Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?+$90No · avg 89¢ → 94.5¢ · $1,551 Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?−$154Yes · avg 15¢ → 14¢ · $1,386

Price-adjusted edge

+27.9 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.4

Flagged volume

$85.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$23.3k

Last 30 days +$394 · $3.90M volume · 6,523 trades · since Dec 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$364.5k

Open P&L · 20 positions

+$9,231

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

668d

1861 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.6	+40.8 pts
Crypto	1	1	0.8	+15.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$23.7k	59%	96d ago	called
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	LOW BUY Jannik Sinner @ 78¢	$16.6k	78%	194d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$20.0k	85%	244d ago	called
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 87¢	$15.0k	87%	244d ago	excluded
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 87¢	$10.4k	87%	265d ago	excluded

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY Yes @ 59¢$23.7k

LOW aleksandmoney · 96d ago

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerexcluded

BUY Jannik Sinner @ 78¢$16.6k

LOW aleksandmoney · 194d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?called

BUY No @ 85¢$20.0k

LOW aleksandmoney · 244d ago

Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Filsexcluded

BUY Alcaraz @ 87¢$15.0k

LOW aleksandmoney · 244d ago

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicexcluded

BUY Alcaraz @ 87¢$10.4k

LOW aleksandmoney · 265d ago

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