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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +24.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+24.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$555.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$18.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.89M volume · 2,040 trades · since Mar 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$692.6k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$40.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
220d
1001 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +24.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? | MED SELL Yes @ 85¢ | $66.2k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $60.0k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
 Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $51.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 39¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | LOW SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | LOW BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante @ 80¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 66¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 93.3¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 87¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $86.6k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff | LOW SELL Karolina Muchova @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW SELL Hornets @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 68¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 76¢ | $22.8k | called |
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