0x8365…e9a6

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -63.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$409No · avg 85¢ → 81¢ · $8,291 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?+$751No · avg 81¢ → 92¢ · $6,349 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?+$404No · avg 87¢ → 96.4¢ · $4,135 Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027?+$462No · avg 85¢ → 97.9¢ · $3,579 Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?+$191No · avg 80¢ → 86¢ · $2,587 Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?+$216No · avg 87¢ → 95.7¢ · $2,331 Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?+$133No · avg 88¢ → 95.7¢ · $1,577 Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?+$221No · avg 80¢ → 93.1¢ · $1,520

Price-adjusted edge

-63.6 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.6

Flagged volume

$62.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$37.7k

Last 30 days −$1,463 · $12.67M volume · 8,311 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$20.4k

Open P&L · 59 positions

−$16.9k

Closed-position win rate

58%

334 closed

Wallet age · markets

729d

394 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	0	0.6	-63.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 95.8¢	$13.1k	4%	362d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 91¢	$13.4k	9%	371d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢	$11.0k	86%	388d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$12.9k	88%	454d ago	called
US recession in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 36¢	$12.0k	64%	541d ago	missed

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed

SELL Yes @ 95.8¢$13.1k

LOW 0x8365…e9a6 · 362d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed

SELL No @ 91¢$13.4k

LOW 0x8365…e9a6 · 371d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 86¢$11.0k

LOW 0x8365…e9a6 · 388d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 88¢$12.9k

LOW 0x8365…e9a6 · 454d ago

US recession in 2025?missed

SELL No @ 36¢$12.0k

LOW 0x8365…e9a6 · 541d ago

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