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locuspm

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -4.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.4 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$4.94M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$80k
5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$80k$0
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? at 3¢) and the edge is -4.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$53.1k
Last 30 days −$326 · $151.64M volume · 152,634 trades · since Aug 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$10.16M
Open P&L · 23 positions
−$51
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
425d
5605 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy500.2-4.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.3k100% 129d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $97.7k
4.5× usual
100% 130d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $97.5k
4.4× usual
1% 130d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $97.9k
4.5× usual
100% 130d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $47.9k
2.2× usual
100% 131d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $48.0k
2.2× usual
100% 131d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $47.8k
2.2× usual
1% 131d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $121.9k
5.6× usual
100% 132d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $97.0k
4.4× usual
1% 132d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $73.4k
3.3× usual
100% 132d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $153.4k
7.0× usual
1% 144d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $44.9k
2.0× usual
0% 144d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $35.6k0% 144d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ $11.7k99% 198d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $32.4k1% 259d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $32.5k99% 259d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ $10.8k1% 259d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $10.8k100% 259d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $10.4k1% 260d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $10.4k99% 260d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $10.9k1% 260d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $10.9k99% 260d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ $10.9k1% 264d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $10.9k99% 264d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $17.4k100% 270d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $17.4k100% 274d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ $17.1k2% 274d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $12.8k2% 274d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $22.0k100% 275d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $22.0k100% 280d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $21.9k100% 280d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $11.5k100% 281d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $11.5k100% 281d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 95.5¢ $12.4k5% 281d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $20.9k100% 282d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $19.4k100% 282d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $19.4k100% 282d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $37.6k100% 282d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $37.7k100% 282d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 95.5¢ $15.3k5% 282d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.2¢ $21.1k5% 282d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $44.6k
2.0× usual
100% 282d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $44.7k
2.0× usual
100% 282d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.3¢ $10.8k5% 283d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $11.4k100% 283d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $18.5k100% 286d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $18.4k100% 286d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $20.7k100% 286d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $20.7k100% 286d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 96.7¢ $20.1k3% 286d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $14.9k0% 302d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $15.0k100% 302d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $31.5k99% 310d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $15.9k1% 318d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $15.9k99% 319d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $27.9k100% 326d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $37.9k100% 326d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $30.2k99% 326d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $71.9k
3.3× usual
100% 326d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $10.4k100% 326d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $23.6k100% 328d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $41.7k99% 329d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $14.5k100% 329d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $15.2k100% 330d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.2k0% 330d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $70.0k
3.2× usual
100% 330d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $1.22M
55.7× usual
100% 330d agoexcluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $24.8k100% 334d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.2¢ $346.2k
15.8× usual
99% 348d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 98.9¢ $447.2k
20.4× usual
99% 349d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $107.9k
4.9× usual
99% 350d agoexcluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.6¢ $415.6k
18.9× usual
100% 360d agoexcluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $204.3k
9.3× usual
100% 360d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$25.3k
LOW locuspm · 129d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$97.7k
LOW locuspm · 130d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$97.5k
LOW locuspm · 130d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$97.9k
LOW locuspm · 130d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$47.9k
LOW locuspm · 131d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$48.0k
LOW locuspm · 131d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$47.8k
LOW locuspm · 131d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$121.9k
LOW locuspm · 132d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$97.0k
LOW locuspm · 132d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$73.4k
LOW locuspm · 132d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$153.4k
MED locuspm · 144d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$44.9k
LOW locuspm · 144d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$35.6k
LOW locuspm · 144d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW locuspm · 176d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$11.7k
LOW locuspm · 198d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$32.4k
LOW locuspm · 259d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$32.5k
LOW locuspm · 259d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.4¢$10.8k
LOW locuspm · 259d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$10.8k
LOW locuspm · 259d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$10.4k
LOW locuspm · 260d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$10.4k
LOW locuspm · 260d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$10.9k
LOW locuspm · 260d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$10.9k
LOW locuspm · 260d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99¢$10.9k
LOW locuspm · 264d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$10.9k
LOW locuspm · 264d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$17.4k
LOW locuspm · 270d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$17.4k
LOW locuspm · 274d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.2¢$17.1k
LOW locuspm · 274d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$12.8k
LOW locuspm · 274d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$22.0k
LOW locuspm · 275d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$22.0k
LOW locuspm · 280d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$21.9k
LOW locuspm · 280d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$11.5k
LOW locuspm · 281d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$11.5k
LOW locuspm · 281d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL No @ 95.5¢$12.4k
LOW locuspm · 281d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$20.9k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$19.4k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$19.4k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$37.6k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$37.7k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL No @ 95.5¢$15.3k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.2¢$21.1k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$44.6k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$44.7k
LOW locuspm · 282d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.3¢$10.8k
LOW locuspm · 283d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$11.4k
LOW locuspm · 283d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$18.5k
LOW locuspm · 286d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$18.4k
LOW locuspm · 286d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.7k
LOW locuspm · 286d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$20.7k
LOW locuspm · 286d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 96.7¢$20.1k
LOW locuspm · 286d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$14.9k
LOW locuspm · 302d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$15.0k
LOW locuspm · 302d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$31.5k
LOW locuspm · 310d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$15.9k
LOW locuspm · 318d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$15.9k
LOW locuspm · 319d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$27.9k
LOW locuspm · 326d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$37.9k
LOW locuspm · 326d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$30.2k
LOW locuspm · 326d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$71.9k
LOW locuspm · 326d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$10.4k
LOW locuspm · 326d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$23.6k
LOW locuspm · 328d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$41.7k
LOW locuspm · 329d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$14.5k
LOW locuspm · 329d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$15.2k
LOW locuspm · 330d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$15.2k
LOW locuspm · 330d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$70.0k
LOW locuspm · 330d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$1.22M
MED locuspm · 330d ago
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$24.8k
LOW locuspm · 334d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$346.2k
MED locuspm · 348d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$447.2k
MED locuspm · 349d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$107.9k
LOW locuspm · 350d ago
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$415.6k
MED locuspm · 360d ago
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$204.3k
LOW locuspm · 360d ago

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