scottorhino

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,693Yes · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $30.5k Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$277Yes · avg 91.1¢ → 97¢ · $4,520 Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?+$11Yes · avg 96¢ → 96.4¢ · $3,083 Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?−$20Yes · avg 75¢ → 74¢ · $3,054 Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?−$35Yes · avg 88¢ → 87¢ · $3,045 Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?−$86Yes · avg 90¢ → 88¢ · $2,992 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?−$14Yes · avg 81¢ → 80¢ · $2,206 Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?+$109Yes · avg 78¢ → 86¢ · $1,205

Price-adjusted edge

+3.9 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$62.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$16.0k

Last 30 days −$643 · $484.5k volume · 233 trades · since Oct 13, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$15.9k

Open P&L · 10 positions

+$394

Closed-position win rate

100%

41 closed

Wallet age · markets

376d

51 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$11.2k	0%	122d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$15.1k	100%	200d ago	excluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢	$12.8k	1%	214d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢	$12.6k	96%	221d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢	$10.7k	1%	265d ago	excluded

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$11.2k

LOW scottorhino · 122d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$15.1k

LOW scottorhino · 200d ago

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$12.8k

LOW scottorhino · 214d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?called

BUY No @ 96.1¢$12.6k

LOW scottorhino · 221d ago

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded

SELL No @ 98.6¢$10.7k

LOW scottorhino · 265d ago

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