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Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$434.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$73.1k
Last 30 days −$1,738 · $17.13M volume · 36,359 trades · since Nov 18, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$250.2k
Open P&L · 103 positions
−$526
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1080d
1955 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.0-3.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Trump out as President by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $11.2k0% 178d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $18.0k0% 178d agoexcluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $14.8k99% 191d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $29.9k100% 198d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $34.9k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 96.7¢ $10.6k3% 218d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 92.3¢ $15.7k8% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k100% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $15.0k100% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $14.9k99% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $12.0k100% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $15.0k100% 252d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $29.9k100% 264d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ $19.9k1% 269d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $80.8k
4.5× usual
0% 294d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $42.0k
2.3× usual
100% 317d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $20.4k1% 330d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $10.1k99% 330d agoexcluded

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