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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -31.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-31.2 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$180.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$163.1k
Last 30 days −$279 · $5.39M volume · 2,128 trades · since Dec 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$162.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
54%
261 closed
Wallet age · markets
306d
248 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -31.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July? | LOW SELL Yes @ 69¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | LOW SELL Yes @ 49¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢ | $12.9k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW SELL Seahawks @ 99.9¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 98.6¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢ | $20.0k | called |
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