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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +3.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.6 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$211.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$41.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.76M volume · 10,601 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$80.9k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$11
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
728d
3379 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +3.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.3¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $30.5k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $21.7k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $18.8k | called |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
 Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
 Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $44.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
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