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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did +36.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+36.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$679.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$385.3k
Last 30 days −$0 · $13.13M volume · 3,909 trades · since Jun 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$745.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$49.9k
Closed-position win rate
55%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
482d
533 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | +36.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | LOW SELL Spurs @ 62¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 91.8¢ | $45.3k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED SELL Illinois Fighting Illini @ 76¢ | $87.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 69¢ | $79.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 85¢ | $35.6k | excluded |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | LOW BUY Miami Hurricanes @ 68¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $46.9k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $40.4k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | MED SELL Nuggets @ 87¢ | $41.1k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 84¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | MED SELL Cavaliers @ 72¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 83¢ | $53.4k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 60¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED SELL Timberwolves @ 84¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 68¢ | $12.8k | called |
 LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Top Esports @ 99.9¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Spurs @ 74¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina | LOW BUY Rybakina @ 67¢ | $13.4k | called |
 LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | LOW SELL Anyones Legend @ 99.9¢ | $35.3k | excluded |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 75¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
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