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bullishkirby

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$4,398No · avg 36¢ → 32¢ · $44.5k · 0 proven with, 1 againstWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$6,678No · avg 10¢ → 8.5¢ · $38.5k2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House−$1,752No · avg 37¢ → 34¢ · $16.0k · 0 proven with, 2 against2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House−$2,092Yes · avg 8.6¢ → 7.5¢ · $13.8kWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?+$240Yes · avg 29¢ → 34¢ · $1,503Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$109Yes · avg 13¢ → 8.5¢ · $206
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$389.1k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$123.7k
Last 30 days −$6,318 · $7.54M volume · 7,660 trades · since May 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$274.0k
Open P&L · 32 positions
−$384.2k
Closed-position win rate
78%
202 closed
Wallet age · markets
166d
203 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 83¢ $67.2k
2.1× usual
17% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $32.7k82% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ $133.6k
4.1× usual
82% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $49.8k100% 138d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $18.8k94% 138d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 94.7¢ $12.1k5% 142d agomissed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $35.0k99% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $29.9k100% 144d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $10.0k99% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 83¢$67.2k
MED bullishkirby · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 82¢$32.7k
LOW bullishkirby · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 82¢$133.6k
MED bullishkirby · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$49.8k
LOW bullishkirby · 138d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 94¢$18.8k
LOW bullishkirby · 138d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 94.7¢$12.1k
LOW bullishkirby · 142d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$35.0k
LOW bullishkirby · 143d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$29.9k
LOW bullishkirby · 144d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$10.0k
LOW bullishkirby · 145d ago

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