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+$831Yes · avg 81¢ → 86¢ · $15.3k−$736Yes · avg 19¢ → 14¢ · $2,601−$12Yes · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $888+$23Yes · avg 14¢ → 16¢ · $178+$2No · avg 85¢ → 88¢ · $64 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$1No · avg 14¢ → 12¢ · $8
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$143.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1,641
Last 30 days +$276 · $9.59M volume · 45,887 trades · since Nov 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$2,602
Open P&L · 9 positions
+$29
Closed-position win rate
56%
214 closed
Wallet age · markets
347d
136 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢ | $10.8k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $22.3k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
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